Trucks and the irrelevance of hybrid and electric cars

The most important vehicle in America?

In February, Ford sold almost 33,000 Ford F Series trucks, making it the top selling vehicle in America, by far. Of the top 3 selling vehicles, 2 were trucks. Inevitably, day after day, month after month, year after year, and decade after decade, large trucks dominate the top of US auto sales.

Nonetheless, while the bread and butter of the Big 3, the 17 mpg all-American truck is killing America.

Fortunately, a few years ago, GM made a pretty smart move and added hybrid technology to its trucks. Unfortunately, despite big increases in fuel economy, especially in city traffic (although how many really need a truck in city driving?), sales for hybrid trucks, such as the Chevy Silverado hybrid, have been almost non-existent because of the significant upfront costs.

Of course, sales for the Chevy Volt range extended electric car will be much better than GM's hybrid trucks. Still, it might take more than a decade for the Volt to achieve even a third of the sales the F Series is currently achieving and possibly far longer.

While the development of small hybrid and electric cars is critical, isn't it time to put more energy into the real problem?

Accenture: Fuel economy not enough to mainstream hybrids and EVs

60 percent want hybrids to be superior in every way

According to a new Accenture Study taken in the US, Canada, Germany, France and Italy, 6 out 10 consumers will only buy a hybrid when it is "superior to gasoline-only models in every way." Likewise, just 36 percent of consumers cited higher gas prices as a reason to buy a hybrid or electric car.

Unfortunately, according to the survey, "those that have driven a hybrid or electric vehicle rate fuel efficiency as being very good to excellent, but most rate the ride, performance, style and maintenance as good at best."

Thus, Accenture concludes that automakers will need to "achieve competitive differentiation, " such as "distinctive capabilities, particularly around safety, environmental protection and entertainment” to achieve mainstream success with hybrid and electric vehicles.

On a side note, of the 42 percent that are willing to buy a hybrid or EV in the next few years, 80 percent are interested in hybrid cars rather than electric vehicles.

Study: Dynamic plug-ins key to cost-effectiveness

Simply more expensive compared to conventional and hybrid cars, despite energy savings

The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory is prepared to release a new study on ways of achieving plug-in hybrid and EV cost-effectiveness. Like most studies, the NREL study also finds that under essentially every scenario possible, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles simply are not going to be cost-effective compared to conventional and hybrid vehicles.

However, the NREL study concludes that there is a promising new approach to plug-in vehicles called "dynamic plug-ins" that could be a difference maker. Essentially, dynamic plug-ins would recharge while moving, enabling smaller battery packs, yet more electricity consumption.

Of course, such an infrastructure for mobile charging is currently non-existent, but if developed, it would be a game-changing technology for plug-in vehicle cost-effectiveness, even with the limitations of current lithium-ion technologies.

Nissan Leaf cheaper than expected? Order in April

No separate battery lease in America?

Beginning in April electric car fans can put down a refundable $100 deposit on a new Nissan Leaf, with deliveries starting in August. Thus far, Nissan expects to sell or lease about 20,000 Leafs based upon initial demand forecasts.

What's becoming more interesting, however, is guessing the final cost of the Leaf. For a while Nissan has claimed that pricing would be similar to that of Toyota Prius, although the battery was be leased separately, adding an extra monthly cost on top of the car.

Today, Insideline is reporting that Nissan will not lease the battery separately, at least not in the US. So, does that mean the cost of the Leaf is going up? Is Nissan going to take a more significant loss on the Leaf to get sales rolling? I guess we'll know by April.

What do 100,000 Volts, Leafs or Prius hybrids per year really mean?

No impact on foreign oil dependence for 2 decades?

For several years now, Toyota has sold more than 100,000 Prius hybrids per year in the US. In fact, Toyota has sold more than 1 million hybrid cars in the US alone.

Yet, what effect have one million hybrids had on US foreign oil dependence? None.

Soon, GM will launch the highly-anticipated Chevy Volt, yet it might be a decade before GM is selling 100,000 Volts per year. Likewise, late this year Nissan will begin US production of the Leaf electric car. When Nissan's new production facility is fully operational, it will produce up to 150,000 Leafs per year.

Yet again, what impact will these vehicles have on foreign oil dependence?

Unfortunately, according to numerous studies, ALL electric vehicle sales in the US, combined, won't have any noticeable impact on foreign oil dependence for probably another TWO decades, and even then the effect might still be marginal.

Certainly, automakers have to start electrifying the automobile somewhere, and the Prius, Volt and Leaf are all noble and important products. Nonetheless, their impact upon the environment and foreign oil dependence will remain meaningless for decades.

Is this really the best that America can do?

Forget hybrids and EVs: Just make cars smaller and lighter?

Could it be this easy?

According to an Oxford Study the best path to decreasing emissions in autos, in the short term, requires a serious decrease in weight and size.

Over the medium term, however, the study finds that hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, offer "significant savings" while helping electric drive trains evolve.

While EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles offer interesting potential long term, all have serious issues to overcome in the short to medium term, such as raw material availability.

Finally, first generation biofuels offer some localized uses. Second generation biofuels show more promise, but will still probably be constrained by land availability. Algae shows some probability of overcoming the land availability issue, but massive innovations and breakthroughs are still required.

US Nissan Leaf production loaned into action

Coming soon

With the help of a $1.4 billion US Department of Energy loan, Nissan is on the path towards US production of the Nissan Leaf electric car, as well the assembly of the Leaf's lithium-ion battery packs.

Limited Leaf production should begin later this year, but when the plant is fully operational, Nissan will be able to produce 150,000 Leafs and 200,000 battery packs at the new Smyrna, Tennessee plant.

Pricing has not been released, but CEO Carlos Ghosn has stated that the Leaf will only cost about 1 - 2 percent more than a gasoline car.

A plan to be 40 percent electric by 2020?

Are Americans ready and willing?

Calling foreign oil dependency “one of the most devastating policy failures of our time”, ex New York Governor, George Pataki, called for new programs to ensure that America is 40 percent electric drive vehicles by 2020.

Today, most experts predict that electric drive penetration will be about 3 - 7 percent by 2020. Therefore, to increase the rate of adoption, Pataki suggests a number of new policies, such as rebates for EVs instead of tax credits, tax exemptions for automakers and incentives for battery development.

Mary Ann Wright, VP and Managing Director, Johnson Controls Business Accelerator for Advanced Energy Storage Solutions, was far less optimistic and claimed demand for such vehicles simply doesn't exist to achieve 40 percent electric vehicle penetration by 2020. Ultimately, "gasoline is too cheap."

Global Insight: 20 percent plugged in by 2030

Still a ways to go

Global Insight has released a new white paper on plug-in vehicles according to GreenCarCongress.

The white paper, Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case, forecasts that pure electric cars will achieve a 9.9 percent market share by 2030, while plug-in hybrids will achieve a 8.6 percent market share by 2030.

Like other studies, battery reliability and costs, infrastructure and consumer expectations are the critical issues to overcome to increase plug-in adoption.

Toyota powertrain exec admires Chevy Volt

A sensible approach to plug-ins?

In a recent interview with CNN, Bill Reinert, Toyota's head of advanced powertrain research, explains that Toyota is not going to rush into pure electric cars. A combination of costs and technological limitations ensure, according to Reinert, that EVs are still far from mass consumer adoption.

Therefore, underwhelming EV consumers with expensive technology that falls short of expectations could slow EV penetration long term, according to Reinert.

However, in the interview Reinert does single out the Chevy Volt as a more sensible approach to pure EVs because it provides a realistic solution to range anxiety.

Audi exec continues hybrid and EV slam

Still not viable even after a $7500 tax credit?

Yesterday, Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen, continued his attack on the political love affair between D.C. politicians, including President Obama, and electric cars, claiming that plug-ins were probably two decades away from widespread use.

"The 50 percent or so price increase that the Volt represents over a similar gasoline car cannot be offset through the savings from reduced fuel compensation," de Nysschen said. "The only way to offset the extreme premium is through taxpayer-funded subsidies," and that according to de Nysschen, "is not sustainable."

Instead, de Nysschen claims the free market should determine the winners, and according to de Nysschen, clean diesel would be a winner that would significantly reduce foreign oil consumption.

California cities battle to lure Tesla

And the EV wars are on, kind of

Just when it seemed the city of Downey, CA was a shoe-in to become the next electric vehicle assembly plant for Tesla, Long Beach stepped up the stakes.

A few weeks ago, Tesla and Downey appeared to agree on a $8.9 million deal to set up an assembly plant.

Yesterday, however, the city of Long Beach approved a plan to offer Tesla $28 million to build an assembly plant in that city.

Will it all come down to the Benjamins?

Ford seeks tax credits to begin EV battery production

The Ford Focus EV

If Ford can acquire about $120 million in state funding from Michigan, the automaker will invest up to $500 million to develop batteries for its EVs in the state while hiring up to 1,000 workers.

If the future of the automobile is the battery, it seems Michigan has no choice but to acquiesce to Ford's demands if keeping Ford in Michigan is job one.

VW UP electric car coming to US market

The UP Lite at the LA Auto Show

There aren't many details, but it has been reported that an EV version of the UP, based closely on the UP Lite concept version pictured in this post, is coming to the US market. Early word suggests the new EV will be called the Space UP! Blue.

After 1 million miles, interesting plug-in hybrid results

A Prius being converted into a plug-in hybrid

The Department of Energy has now logged more than 1 million testing miles with their fleet of plug-in hybrids, and they've collected some interesting data.

First, driver behavior, charging frequency and environmental conditions have significant impact on plug-in hybrid efficiency. Second, driving patterns suggest per day driving range is much less than expected. Third, forgetting to plug-in is common and should be expected. And finally, non-charging energy use could be significant.

In Best plug-in vehicles: EVs, Range Extended EVs, or Plug-in Hybrids? I suggested that no one plug-in vehicle is a game changer, and this data doesn't change my mind.

Nonetheless, this data does seem to show that consumers might not be ready to to fully utilize plug-in vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid or range extended electric vehicles. For instance, if consumers do not piously plug-in, the cost-effectiveness of plug-ins can decrease significantly, especially as the battery size increases. Considering that plug-ins aren't very cost-effective to start, this could be a serious issue.

Gas Tax: Good idea, but "no political interest"

Plug-in adoption to be slow and gradual

In the past week Nissan/Renault head, Carlos Ghosn has been on an EV publicity tour. Yesterday, however, Ghosn seemed to take a more tempered approach towards electric vehicles.

"We're not going to take the market by storm," said Ghosn at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Electricity is going to complement oil."

Still, Ghosn believes that EVs could reach 10 percent worldwide marketshare by 2020, one of the higher estimates in the industry.

At the same meeting Steve Rattner, one time leader of the Obama Auto Task Force, was asked about a gas tax.

"It's obviously what we should do," Rattner said. "There's no political will. There's no political interest."

Nissan, Fed Ex ask gov for $124 billion for plug-ins

The Nissan Leaf electric vehicle

A group calling itself the Electrification Coalition, led by Nissan and Federal Express, is asking for the government to spend $128 billion over 8 years to help make electricity the fuel of cars.

The EV group "is urging Congress to pass a series of tax credits and loan guarantees to help bring 14 million electric cars to the road by 2020. Their plan envisions building up the use of electric vehicles in six to eight cities in the short term with the goal of making 75 percent of all vehicle miles traveled powered by electricity by 2040."

I'd like to see the whole plan, but this seems a little presumptuous considering not one major automaker has even yet sold a plug-in vehicle. Likewise, the government is already putting up $50 billion+ just to help automakers achieve new CAFE standards. If such a plan were to move forward, wouldn't it be better to reallocate that $50 billion in CAFE funds to this plan, for instance?

More important, if the government is to foot the bill for electrification, shouldn't the plan be as comprehensive as possible, and ensure that the recently bailed out US auto industry is a central focus of the plan?

Study - Energy costs much more than consumers pay

And plug-ins don't help much if coal-powered

Some great information coming out of the “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use” study completed by the National Research Council for Congress.

Essentially, America's energy paradigm costs Americans MUCH more than what we pay at the gas pump or in our utility bills. In 2005, for instance, America's 'hidden' costs of energy production added an extra $120 billion in health costs, not including "damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize."

So, in reality, the costs are even far greater, and converting to grid-powered plug-in vehicles is no quick fix, at least in terms of health costs.

"Electric vehicles and grid-dependent (plug-in) hybrid vehicles showed somewhat higher nonclimate damages than many other technologies for both 2005 and 2030. Operating these vehicles produces few or no emissions, but producing the electricity to power them currently relies heavily on fossil fuels; also, energy used in creating the battery and electric motor adds up to 20% to the manufacturing part of life-cycle damages."

Of course, if national security costs had been monetized, then some of these health costs would be negated.

Consequently, the reports suggests that, "major initiatives to further reduce other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner electricity-generating mix (e.g., renewables, natural gas, nuclear) could substantially reduce external effects’ damages, including those from grid-dependent hybrid and electric vehicles."

A case for plug-in hybrids

A Prius about to be converted into a plug-in hybrid

My power went out just before midnight last night and I've blown through both of my notebook's batteries.

No worries. My hybrid is full of juice, so I'm working in my car right now, and this whole experience has me thinking about plug-in vehicles.

Until a much more robust infrastructure for EV charging is developed, instances such as these - and it only takes one - will remind consumers of why a plug-in hybrid is simply a more comforting choice of vehicle than a pure EV.

EVs leading to a "green bubble"?

Buy the Leaf, rent the $10,000 battery?

By 2020, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn recently claimed, 10 percent of worldwide vehicle sales will be electric vehicles.

Global Insight, however, puts that EV market share figure at .06 percent, according to the DetroitNews.

Likewise, the same article cites a CitiGroup Markets Report aimed at investors in the power utilities and the auto companies that warns cost barriers, the need for massive incentives, range issues, and a lack of infrastructure create the "risk of this [EVs] being another green bubble."

Even before EVs take off, Deutsche Bank believes that hybrid cars, small cars and other fuel efficient technologies will cause an "inexorable and accelerating decline" in gasoline demand beginning in 2015.

If true, how will governments afford massive incentives for EVs and EV infrastructure if their gas tax revenues begin to decline significantly? Furthermore, if gasoline demand declines, won't gas prices also decline and make it even harder to entice consumers into more expensive electric cars?

The irreconcilable EV dichotomy?

Madness or genius?

Sure, the Toyota FT-EV II electric car is odd, but is it practical? Is it cost-effective compared to other electric vehicles or even gasoline vehicles?

For instance, how many Americans can afford a two-seat $90,000 electric Roadster just for commuting? Even $45,000 is still far too expensive.

And that's the genius of a vehicle like the FT-EV. It's EV practicality. Why buy more than you need? If kept simple and on task, costs can more easily be contained for EVs, especially EVs built for average commuters.

Of course, is the American auto consumer driven by practicality?

Still, Honda has shown similar ideas, as has Mitsubishi. Nissan's Leaf isn't quite so economically focused, but it's definitely closer to the FT-EV side of the dichotomy growing between cheap EVs and luxurious EVs, as is the revolutionary Better Place idea.

One the other hand, one week luxury vehicle maker Audi is slamming the Chevy Volt, the next week they are announcing plans for the Audi E-Tron, a luxury electric vehicle. The Volt doesn't make sense, but the E-Tron does?

Then again, everyone is building a luxury EV or luxury plug-in hybrid these days, at least a few of them. Isn't this really more about marketing at this time? Besides, are luxury EVs and luxury plug-in hybrid vehicles really the path to cost-effective evonomics? Or, are cost-effective evonomics dependent upon a more practical, efficient realization of the automobile, such as the Leaf or the FT-EV II?

Can Americans really have their EV cake and eat it to, or is a revolution in America's auto culture required to really move America's auto industry, and auto consumer, forward?

Toyota: Fuel cell hybrids ARE the best hybrids

A fuel cell version by 2015?

What's the future of the automobile? Hybrids, plug-ins or fuel cell vehicles?

All of the above according to Toyota.

Obviously, Toyota already sells a number of hybrid cars, and Toyota will begin rolling out plug-in electric vehicles by 2012, followed by fuel cell hybrids in 2015.

While demonstrating how Toyota plans to cut fuel cell costs, the company noted that plug-in vehicles will be used for small, short range intra-city vehicles. However, for larger vehicles and longer ranges, Toyota believes that fuel cell hybrids are the most well-to-wheel efficient autos compared to conventional hybrids, plug-in EVs and conventional gas vehicles.

A glimpse into the future of city transportation?

The all electric EV-N

Want a small, cheap plug-in vehicle for your daily commuting?

I'm guessing that's the vision behind the Honda EV-N concept.

If this is the future of the automobile, that future probably won't be built in America, I'm guessing. By the time we get it, it'll be too late.

Is America's auto culture, though proud and historic, killing the US auto industry?

BYD: A legitimate hybrid killer

BYD EVs coming to the US next year

In 1995, BYD became another Asian company entering the advanced battery space, with a strong focus on automotive technologies. Just several years ago, however, BYD decided it was time to put its technology into its own vehicles.

This year, BYD expects to sell 400,000 vehicles, including a few plug-in hybrids.

Obviously, such an ouput is largely insignificant compared to Ford or GM, however, BYD has achieved this production rate in just a few years. Moreover, by 2025, BYD believes it will be producing more vehicles than Toyota.

And investors like Warren Buffet are buying into this long term potential.

Certainly, it will take time for BYD to appeal to US consumers, however, when this does happen - and it will happen - China could become a killer of American hybrid cars and electric vehicles. Not only will BYD have access to cheaper battery and auto manufacturing capabilites, but also better and cheaper access to lithium and rare earth metals.

Then again, Mr. Buffett isn't always right, but if he is, won't it be awfully difficult for US automakers - even Toyota as well - to compete with BYD, especially in advanced, fuel efficient technologies and their slim profit margins?

Frankfurt EV buzz irrelevant in America?

Would it sell in America?

According to much of the press coming out of the Frankfurt Auto Show, the buzz there is humming around electric vehicles. And, while some of the concept vehicles debuting there seem down right silly, at least by American standards, they just might work in Europe, where small, silly cars - again by American standards - are already acceptable.

More important, however, Europe has the kind of fuel prices that could actually make these vehicles cost-effective one day.

Can electric vehicles ever resonate with the American masses without significantly higher energy prices, and/or at least a revolutionary embrace of small, odder-than-the-Prius vehicles?

Audi President claims Volt and EVs for "idiots" and "intellectual elite"

"A car for idiots"?

During an MSN interview Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen called the Chevy Volt "a car for idiots" largely because of its price premium. In fact, he claims the Volt will be a failure, but that the government will continue to subsidize the Volt because of its investment into GM.

Likewise, de Nysschen also slammed full electric cars saying, "They're for the intellectual elite who want to show what enlightened souls they are." However, he did concede that, theoretically, plug-in hybrids could offer advantages over diesel.

0.5% market share for plug-ins by 2015?

Great for media, but how about the real world?

If it were up to me, I'd cancel the cash for clunkers program and offer an unlimited tax credit, at least through 2015, for any and every vehicle that achieves at least 50 mpg combined. I might even add an additional credit for any vehicle that achieves 100 mpg combined.

Ultimately, I'd bet that would lead to a rush in development of hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles if the credit were similar to the clunker's program.

Without such a program, I've written that battery powered vehicles are going nowhere fast. For instance, according to JD Power or CSM Worldwide, hybrids and plug-ins will only achieve a marketshare of 3.6 percent by 2015, compared to 1.6 percent in 2009. Plug-in vehicles will achieve a market share of just .5%.

Say JD Power is wrong. Say JD has some hidden agenda. However, thus far, JD has done a pretty good job of predicting hybrid vehicle market share.

Is there too much hype around the battery-powered revolution? If the battery-powered car is our goal, why not be realistic about what it's going to take to get us there?

Aptera 2e steps closer to production

Latest interior sketch of the Aptera 2e

The final touches are being added to the Aptera 2e electric vehicle, which is scheduled to begin production this year. Aptera has released this sketch of the latest interior design.

In 2010, Aptera will also roll out the plug-in hybrid version of the Aptera.

It's still a strange vehicle and cost-effectiveness could be an issue. Beginning at $25,000, this limited seating vehicle will only resonate with a small group of consumers. Of course, $25,000 isn't very much to many early adopters of such technologies, especially in the auto segment.

Nonetheless, I love the out-of-the-box thinking on the 2e. Hopefully, Aptera will sell enough of these vehicles to provide the R&D resources to keep refining their unconventional, yet brilliant, ideas.

Nissan closer to small hybrids, but not sold yet

No more HSD for Nissan

At a technology briefing regarding Nissan's electric vehicle plans, Executive Vice President Mitsuhiko Yamashita said "Japan's No.3 automaker had made no final decision about actually offering small and mid-sized hybrid vehicles, but said the technology may be necessary for consumers who need fuel-efficient, all-purpose cars that have the same driving range as conventional gasoline or diesel cars," reports Reuters.

While claiming that zero emission vehicles would be the ideal path forward, Yamashita acknowledged that electric vehicles "might take a while"; therefore, small and medium sized hybrid vehicles could provide a good interim - and probably more cost-effective - offering.

Conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric cars, can forward-looking automakers afford not to produce all three?

Study: Battery Swapping the key to electric cars

Bad news for the auto industry?

A new study by the University of California at Berkeley finds that the key to electric vehicle success could be dependent upon the ability of electric car owners to swap their batteries. Under such a plan consumers might own their car, but not the battery, much like the idea behind Project Better Place.

I haven't been able to read the whole study yet, but I've been a big fan of Better Place's out of the box thinking. Nonetheless, it makes me wonder, is the entire established auto industry capable of surviving such a business model?

Daimler: Clean diesel is not enough

A Mercedes hybrid vehicle

While the future of the electrification of the automobile is still murky, Daimler is now fully committed to being a leader. Despite cutbacks in every department, R & D spending on lithium technology has been increasing and will not be cut.

From hybridization to full electric cars, Daimler is now certain clean, high performance diesel will not be enough to carry the company into the future. The battery is now critical to Daimler, and its marquee Mercedes brand.

"It's clear that a dramatic transition period has started," Thomas Weber, head of R&D, tells Fortune "and we want to actively shape it."

Thus, expect a a wide range of mild hybrids, full hybrids and electric cars from Daimler in the very near future.

Waiting for the EV revolution? Grab a comfy chair

Is the Prius already old technology?

Over the years I've heard many say they won't buy another car until it comes with a plug. Well, for most Americans, they'll be waiting a long time for a new car, especially if they want a pure electric vehicle.

In a new article today, Ron Cogan asks, "Will buyers pay $15,000 to $25,000 more for a vehicle that runs solely on batteries compared to a similar gasoline or clean diesel model?"

Of course not, which is why conventional vehicles and hybrid cars, including plug-in hybrids, will be the dominant automotive technologies for the short-to-midterm, or even longer.

And analysis by Bosch Automotive Group suggests the same. "The electric car will come, but in small numbers at first. It will occupy a niche and will not make a noticeable mark on the roads until after 2020." Ultimately, "dominance of the internal-combustion engine will remain unchallenged over the next twenty years."

Is the government's focus on plugging in too much too soon? Shouldn't the focus be on getting batteries, especially next gen batteries, into as many cars as soon as possible, rather than just those with plugs? Can America really afford to give the cheap hybrid vehicle market away to the Asians the same way we gave away small cars just a few decades ago? Even worse, might this focus on the plug be counter-productive to developing an American battery manufacturing industry?

EV cost check: $47,000 for an i MiEv?

It is clean and green though

During media days at the LA Auto show I spent a good bit of time sitting in the i MiEV, imaging myself as a driver and a passenger. Opening and shutting doors. Just really trying to get a feel for the vehicle. Ultimately, I assumed the reason for this car feeling so small and, I hate to say it, but cheap, was to help make this car more affordable.

Yet, today Mitsubishi has announced that the i MiEV is going on sale this year in Japan for $47,500. Isn't that wildly expensive for such a vehicle with only 100 mile range?

Moreover, it really makes me wonder how much the Chevy Volt is really going to cost at first. Somehow I think GM is banking on some funny accounting in order to sell the Volt at $40,000.

Time to pull the plug on the Chevy Volt?

It just can't help GM?

If you hate GM, then you probably don't think much of the Chevy Volt. In fact, you might even call it an unrealistic hype machine into which GM has sunk far too much money.

That's the argument the Washington Post makes today, and I have to admit, it's a pretty persuasive argument. For instance, the article points to numerous analyses, including some done by President Obama's auto task force, that indicate the economics simply don't make sense for a vehicle like the Volt. Thus, how can the Volt help GM's bottom line?

For example, even with $4.00 gas, it would still take, minimally, six years for the the Volt to recover its costs compared to today's Toyota Prius. And, that's assuming the Volt will only cost $30,000 after huge government tax credits and subsidies. Even at such a cost, it would still take far longer for many other Volt owners to recover their costs compared to a Prius.

Thus, this Post editorial suggests pulling the plug on the Volt, and I couldn't disagree more.

I have long argued that the Volt should never have been an excuse not to develop a Prius-contender. Perhaps GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrid system can fill this void, but cheap quality hybrids will be a necessity for any automaker in the very near future.

Fortunately, GM's billion dollar investment into the Volt could help produce such cheap hybrid vehicles, aside from the Volt. Because much of GM's Volt investment has been centered around one core technology, lithium-ion batteries, GM could conceivably parlay this knowledge into many different types of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Hence, to call GM's Volt venture a waste that helped lead to bankruptcy and a loss of corporate reputation is pure nonsense.

I've seen GM's battery labs. I've seen GM's virtual design center. These two elements alone could make GM's Volt investment worth the cost, even if the Volt itself is another decade away from any sort of real world, cost-effective impact.

Nonetheless, the Volt cannot save GM in the next decade. However, that does not mean the plug should be pulled on the Volt. Instead, it means GM needs to utilize the massive amount of intelligence gleaned from the Volt and convert it into a more well-rounded and balanced hybrid and electric vehicle portfolio, including the Volt.

If GM can do that, the Volt might just be GM's smartest investment ever. If not, maybe we shouldn't just pull the plug on the Volt, but GM.

Ford lithium research to begin paying off next year?

A lithium powered Escape at Hybridfest

Starting next year Ford is going to begin building a new generation of hybrid vehicles and electric cars based off of lithium-ion research that Ford has been carrying out with potential suppliers and university researchers. According to the DetroitNews, much of this new research will be highlighted this week at the SAE World Congress.

According to early reports, Ford will be able to produce lithium batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles that are not only 5 percent more efficient than NiMH batteries, but 30 percent cheaper to mass manufacture.

We say bring it on and let's end this 25,000 hybrid per year quota that Ford has been stuck on for years!

How secure would a national smart grid be?

Forget storm outages, what about cybersecurity?

It's 2020. Now, imagine a 90 square mile patch of solar panels in the desert of the SouthWest powering all of America via a super grid. Now imagine plug-in vehicles throughout America powering up via clean, green solar power. No oil. No dirty coal. Just clean, green solar energy.

Sounds great, right?

Right up until some cyberterrorist shuts the grid down for a couple of weeks and you can't power your home or your electric car. Good thing I'll be driving a plug-in hybrid, and living in a home with solar panels (hopefully)!

All kidding aside, the recent cyberterrorist scouting of the current electric grid is a reminder that the plug-in revolution isn't without obstacles, perhaps massive obstacles which might significantly increase the costs of electric power.

Certainly, we should continue to move forward with national smart grid plans and solar farms, but more effort in the short-to-midterm, in my opinion, should also be focused on small battery plug-in hybrids - versus large battery vehicles - and more distributed energy, especially regarding home solar and wind solutions.

PUMA: Pure joke or possibilities?

Now that's outside of the box

Can a two-wheeled, two-seat electric vehicle change the face of transportation? Probably not any time soon. Still, it's nice to see GM investigate something so, well, small.

Perhaps more interesting than the vehicle, "The Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility, or PUMA, project also would involve a vast communications network that would allow vehicles to interact with each other, regulate the flow of traffic and prevent crashes from happening," according to AP reports.

Capable of 35 mpg and 35 mile range, the PUMA is ready to be launched today, however, no production date has been set, nor have any cost details been released.

Chrysler and A123: Great Green PR but......

A Chrysler EV at the LA auto show

I'm out of shape. Yet, yesterday I finished a concrete patio that required thousands of pounds of ready mix - hand mixed 90# bag by 90# bag.

So, if I'm more cynical that usual, it's only because I'm hurting.

Still, when I read about the Chrysler / A123 partnership on EV batteries, I couldn't help but think, GREENWASH.

Already, President Obama's task force has stated that the Chevy Volt really can't help GM's bottom line any time soon. In fact, the Volt might not be profitable for at least another decade or more.

On the other hand, the task force is less than 30 days from forcing Chrysler into bankruptcy if they don't merge with Fiat. So, can EVs really be expected to help Chrysler's bottomline sooner than GM's?

Who cares? Green press is good - even if it isn't realistic - and this announcement is especially good. It's two US companies. So, it isn't just Chrysler auto jobs, but also high tech battery jobs - perfect for Obama's green, high tech, clean energy plans.

Sounds great. It has grant and government loan written all over it, which is fine. I love A123Systems. Still, if gas prices aren't sustainably doubled, at least, in the next few years, the idea that lithium will make help make Chrysler viable in the next decade is pure fantasy.

Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Plain and simple cost effectiveness

Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.

So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.

Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.

FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Forget electric cars. I want a methanol PFCHV

It's all electromethanogenesis, baby

Forget electric cars?

I must be off my rocker, right? So, which wild hair crawled up my behind?

Well, I am a fan of fuel cell technology, you see, and I've long believed that fuel cell hybrid vehicles, not just battery-powered EVs, are the future. Fuel cells are just too efficient to ignore.

Yet, fuel cells are not without faults, such as the need for scarce metals. Still, fuel cell issues, I'm confident, can be resolved.

It's cracking the hydrogen highway that's the real nut.

Methanol fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, could use methanol pumped through the current gasoline infrastructure that dominates American life today.

Finish: Forget electric cars. I want a methanol PFCHV

Change? Why not natural gas hybrids?

New fuel, new battery

Starting Wednesday, the Pickens Plan will kick off a virtual march to push Congress and the White House towards a greater embrace of natural gas and wind power.

President Obama, however, has indicated that natural gas isn't an option. It's the electric car or nothing, but is that really wise?

I'm certainly not arguing against plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. It just seems to me that scaling up production of these vehicles is going to take much more time than most advocates are willing to accept. Likewise, many of these vehicles are going to be consuming dirty coal for decades.

Thus, shouldn't natural gas be at least part of the conversation? And, to protect the drive towards electrification, the program could be driven by natural gas hybrid vehicles, which keeps investment into battery technology rolling while replacing foreign oil with domestic, cleaner natural gas.

Certainly having big dreams of solar power plants in the Southwest powering America's fleet of plug-ins via a super-grid are worth pursuing, but such a plan isn't going to happen over night. And the costs of making this happen far more quickly are probably more expensive than most tax payers would accept.

Thus, couldn't natural gas, especially focused around hybrids, be a bridge off foreign oil while electrification is developed and scaled?

Obama shifting funding from hydrogen to plug-ins

A Honda fuel cell vehicle

The Obama administration will shift the government's funding from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to plug-in vehicles.

"We want diversity, but we also want critical mass. If we're going to address these problems (of dependence on foreign oil), we eventually have to build something," said Steven Chalk, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Energy Department's Office of Energy Efficiency of and Renewable Energy, adding the government has to "pick some winners so to speak and go with our best shot."

EVs and hybrids: A bandaide for American denial?

Could it really be so simple?

Last night I watched a PBS program about the Velib, which essentially means freedom bike. In Paris, one can quite easily rent a bicycle to go from their subway stop to their job, the store, etc. Bike sharing is becoming Parisian for cool.

Moreover, cities such as Paris and London, are taking road space and converting it into public space - for walking, biking or some kind of public transportation space.

Yet, here in America, everything is about cake-eating. We don't want real change. Somehow the American Dream has come to mean irresponsibility.

We want the same auto culture as today, except in the future we'll plug-in our car and suck up as much coal as we can consume. Moreover, we're relying on a dying auto industry to somehow immediately start converting the entire US fleet into EVs - something which would take about 12 years if only EVs were produced today.

Obviously, many Americans will need cars for many years, and a move to hybrid cars and EVs is essential and important, but aren't even more innovative solutions required? Perhaps, even more simple solutions?

Is Fisker a Tesla killer?

The Karma convertible

In about a year, Fisker Automotive will begin production on the Karma plug-in hybrid sedan. Already the company is finalizing the details on its dealership network and at least 1,300 vehicles are already on the books according to reports.

Yet, what is really interesting about Fisker is the plan to produce 15,000 plug-in hybrids per year. By the time the Karma goes on sale, on the other hand, Tesla might still not have produced 1,000 Roadsters.

Is Tesla quickly becoming irrelevant?

In terms of cost, both the Roadster and the Karma are in the same league. Yet, the Karma seems to offer so much more. For instance, a wider dealership network, better range, and more seating.

Yes, Tesla will eventually offer a 4-seat sedan that could cost-cut the Karma, yet Tesla's manufacturing history is a serious question mark. If Fisker can come out of the gate with all their manufacturing pistons firing, is there any room left in the market for Tesla?

Detroit Auto Show: Do you buy the green hype?

Prius sales down 44 percent

In the last few years, automakers have realized that green is in, at least in terms of marketing. As a result, auto shows have become forums for establishing green cred.

This year's Detroit Auto Show was greener than ever, yet are automakers really any greener? Or, is most of the green auto movement pure hype?

In just a couple of years, GM's Chevy Volt will put rubber to the road, but it will be many more years before GM produces serious numbers of Volts per year.

A number of other automakers will also be rolling out various types of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles in the next few years as well. Again, however, also in very small numbers.

Even if automakers are more aggressive with their EV and hybrid plans, are consumers even ready for such vehicles?

Not if the economy isn't significantly stronger and gas prices much higher NewsWeek speculates, and I doubt that major automakers are oblivious to this possibility. Numerous studies have indicated that a significant percent of consumers want hybrids and EVs, but they don't want to pay much extra for them. How do struggling automakers cope with that reality?

Do automakers have a solution to this conundrum? Do they really care? Or, is all this green hype really much more about image than reality?

If I had to make a bet, I'd bet on a number of automaker bankruptcies before I'd bet on their green developments. Great change is coming to the auto industry, but that change isn't going to be driven by powertrains, but simple survival.

Or, is green talk the quickest path to Obama's bailout heart? (Check comments for an update)

As hybrid hype rages in Detroit, Goldman calls for $30 oil

The new Fisker Karma in Detroit

Hybrid cars and EVs were a huge part of this year's Detroit Auto Show. Yet, as all these automakers attempt to greenwash away the reality of their carbon-footprints and their complicity in America's foreign oil dependency with concepts that we'll never see or see only in very small numbers for years, Goldman Sachs is calling for $30 oil some time this quarter.

Isn't it ironic?

New plans to electrify Ford

First Ford EV coming in 2010

So, by 2010 Ford will offer an electric van and a small electric car capable of at least 100 miles per charge by 2011. By 2012, Ford will also offer plug-in hybrids capable of 30 miles of electric power. In addition, Ford wants to hybridize many more models with new hybrid technology that will be 70 percent more fuel efficient than conventional versions.

Sounds, impressive, right?

Yet, very few numbers have been provided, such as how many of such vehicles will be built per year. While that isn't really unusual, Ford's hybrid history has been quite conservative, such as only building 25,000 Escape hybrids per year. Will these new plans be similarly as cautious?

Ultimately, Ford's hybrid plans appear quite similar to hybrid leader, Toyota. Minimally, however, Ford has a lot of catching up to do. While off to a good start with the new Ford Fusion, the real focal point in the next few years will be Ford's aggressiveness as it rolls out these new products. If as slow as its current hybrid program, these plans could be much ado about nothing.

The Volt will kick EV1 ass

Let's get real folks

I've pretty much had it with the EV1, GM killed the electric car, folks.

Did GM kill the electric car? Shut up.

Every automaker is working on an electric car today. No one killed the electric car. Cheap gas, however, delayed the emergence of the electric car.

Did GM screw up the EV1 program? Absolutely, but without much higher gas prices, how many EV1's could GM really have sold, especially if they sold them at real world cost? Honestly, 5 years ago, how many would have paid $40,000+ for a two-seat vehicle with 100 mile range and 6 hour charge requirements?

Certainly, some would have, but the EV1 would never have achieved the economies of scale to achieve profitability. NEVER. And, for GM haters, even Toyota has publicly stated that it could never achieve profitability on NiMH-powered EVs.

Nonetheless, could GM have parlayed the EV1 into 10,000 units a year and lots of positive green press? Yes. But, what would that have really changed? Ultimately, it would have just greenwashed the fact that gas-guzzlers were still GM's bread and butter.

If GM made a big mistake, in my opinion, it was that it didn't convert its EV1 experience into a Prius-like hybrid to help further develop battery technology while addressing fuel economy immediately. Yet, how much would a Prius-like hybrid have really helped GM? After 10 years of Prius production, it is unlikely that Toyota has yet recovered its total Prius investment.

Does that absolve GM's mistakes? Hell no, but let's keep some perspective people.

And, most important, the EV1 DOES NOT prove that NiMH batteries could now be powering the Chevy Volt. The EV1 had 100 miles of range, then required a 6 hour charge. The Chevy Volt, when not powered by grid electricity, uses electricity created by on-board generator. That means the Volt might go 500 miles without stopping, plugging into the grid, etc. Yet, for that entire 500 miles, the Volt will be relying on its battery pack as electricity always powers the Volt.

When did the EV1 ever go 500 miles without multiple charges? That's right, never. Not even close.

Inevitably, the battery requirements of the Volt and the EV1 are vastly different - it's apples to oranges - especially when you're going to offer a 10 year warranty on the battery pack.

Furthermore, as a consumer, if you could buy a 100 mile range EV1 for the same price as a Volt with unlimited range, which would you buy?

Yet, if gas prices are below $3.00, even the Volt won't really help GM much, and full electrification will still be decades away. So, if you want to get angry about the killing of the electric car, get mad at GM's lobbyists. Get made at your Congressperson. And, if you want to get really crazy, tell your representatives in Washington that you want higher gas taxes.

Ford poised for hybrid leadership?

New hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs by 2012

We've heard it before. Ford was going to become a hybrid leader, then they weren't. Of course, now there is also a new sheriff in town with new rules and new plans.

Ford's new CEO, Alan Mulally, achieved much success striving for efficiency while at Boeing. Can he do the same with the only US automaker not to yet need any government loan help thanks to Mulally's restructing efforts after taking over Ford's helm?

That's what many are wondering thanks to a recent statement Ford made when it announced new plans for hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs by 2012, which are to be elaborated upon at NAIAS.

In the past, I would have poooh-pooohed such news as just greenwashing, but considering the engineering success of the Ford Fusion hybrid and its new hybrid powertrain, there is reason to be hopeful.

Still, is this all just PR and congressional-pointed propaganda, or do you think Ford is ready to become a real leader in hybrid and EV technology? And, I define real leadership as not just technology, but significant sales. Can Ford become a hybrid sales leader within the next five years?

Your solar Prius coming soon

Toyota working on solar powered EVs

According to unconfirmed reports, Toyota is "secretly" working on solar powered electric vehicles. To start, the vehicles might only be partially powered by solar power, while offering the ability to fully charge via roof top solar panels. The long term goal, however, is to have the solar cars achieve all of their power from the vehicle's own solar cells.