Waiting for the EV revolution? Grab a comfy chair

Is the Prius already old technology?

Over the years I've heard many say they won't buy another car until it comes with a plug. Well, for most Americans, they'll be waiting a long time for a new car, especially if they want a pure electric vehicle.

In a new article today, Ron Cogan asks, "Will buyers pay $15,000 to $25,000 more for a vehicle that runs solely on batteries compared to a similar gasoline or clean diesel model?"

Of course not, which is why conventional vehicles and hybrid cars, including plug-in hybrids, will be the dominant automotive technologies for the short-to-midterm, or even longer.

And analysis by Bosch Automotive Group suggests the same. "The electric car will come, but in small numbers at first. It will occupy a niche and will not make a noticeable mark on the roads until after 2020." Ultimately, "dominance of the internal-combustion engine will remain unchallenged over the next twenty years."

Is the government's focus on plugging in too much too soon? Shouldn't the focus be on getting batteries, especially next gen batteries, into as many cars as soon as possible, rather than just those with plugs? Can America really afford to give the cheap hybrid vehicle market away to the Asians the same way we gave away small cars just a few decades ago? Even worse, might this focus on the plug be counter-productive to developing an American battery manufacturing industry?

Another step towards GM's lithium BAS hybrids

Lithium powered in 2010?

By the second half of 2010 GM should begin rolling out a few new hybrids with its upgraded BAS mild hybrid system. And the lithium-ion batteries for these new hybrids will be powered by Hitachi.

Today, Hitachi announced that it is planning to significantly increase production of its lithium ion batteries in advance of an expected significant increase in demand. So far, GM alone has already ordered enough cells for 100,000 hybrid vehicles.

Will the new GM be as pathetic as the new GMAC?

Another reason to dislike GM?

Not that long ago, but before the gas price boom of 2008, GM's Bob Lutz stated that GM could have used a fraction of one year's marketing budget to produce a Toyota Prius competitor. Instead, GM invested that money into ads promoting its latest round of gas guzzlers as Toyota went onto sell more than 1,000,000 Prius hybrids and counting.

Today, GM's largest shareholder is the government, via the US taxpayer, and the government has vowed to put $50 billion more into the new GM beyond the many billions it put into GM to save the automaker from bankruptcy. Hopefully, this time, GM is smarter about the way it spends money.

But, if the new GM is like the new GMAC, also known as Ally Bank, I think it might be time for liquidation.

The new Ally Bank commercials portray Ally Bank as this fair, new bank, unlike all the other banks that screwed over customers and then needed massive bailout money. Unfortunately, however, Ally Bank is GMAC, the same financial unit of GM that received some $20 billion from the US government to keep the doors open.

This is the kind of of company - the kind of ethics - that the government is going to invest, ultimately, almost $100 billion into?

Ford hybrid sales up 91 percent in June

But, it's not quite as good as it sounds

Sales of Ford hybrid cars were up 91 percent in June compared to last June, largely thanks to the new Fusion hybrid. Then again, last year at this time, supplies of the Escape hybrid were so low that I'm not quite sure this number is as impressive as it sounds.

Overall in June, Ford sold 3,649 hybrid vehicles. For comparison, Toyota sold 16,744 hybrids.

Without doubt, this is a nice improvement for Ford's hybrid sales. Nonetheless, until Ford takes on the Prius, Ford will remain a minor hybrid player compared to Toyota.

Optional head lamp could destroy Toyota Prius

Dead on arrival?

Boy, read MotorTrend or AutoWeek this morning and one might think the world has crashed on the king of hybrid cars and it's Toyota Prius.

An optional, upgraded head lamp has been faulty and potential class action lawsuits are in the works. Yet, from what I've been able to determine, this is a problem affecting only hundreds of Prius owners. Perhaps many others aren't complaining, and this problem is affecting a couple thousand owners. Nonetheless, we're talking a tiny faction of Toyota Prius owners.

Certainly, if this is a shoddy product, Toyota should recall and fix this problem. Regardless, is this something that could really hurt Prius sales, or is this just something that MotorTrend and AutoWeek are hoping will hurt Prius sales?

Would GM gain anything from a rebadged Prius?

GM's next green dream machine?

OK. GM has crushed the idea of using Toyota's hybrid technology numerous times. Nonetheless, there is another rumor out today that Toyota and GM are discussing the possibility of re-utilizing their joint NUMMI venture to rebadge Toyota Prius hybrids for GM.

Regardless of the fact that I'm 99.9 percent certain such a partnership would never happen, what would GM have to gain by such a venture?

Almost certainly, GM wouldn't make any money off these hybrid vehicles, and I don't think they would provide any more green PR than the Chevy Volt is already providing. Even worse, these cars would cast much doubt on GM's upcoming lithium-powered BAS hybrid powertrain.

Am I missing something? Why won't this rumor just go away?

Consumer Reports slams Honda Insight

The most disappointing Honda in years

I have not yet seen the August issue of Consumer Reports, but according to CNN, CR will not recommend the Honda Insight, noting its poor "ride quality, handling, interior noise, acceleration, and rear-seat access."

In fact, out of 22 hatchbacks and small wagons, the Insight placed second to last.

Honda countered by saying initial consumer feedback and auto media press has been much more favorable regarding Honda's latest hybrid.

Where's the people's cut?

Bankruptcies, loans, grants, etc - Where's my cut?

Just finished a story about a Dow Chemical venture into a pilot-scale algae-based integrated biorefinery. Interesting piece. Algae still has hurdles, but the upside is HUGE.

Yet, Dow is seeking a Department of Energy grant to "demonstrate the technology at a level to sufficiently prove that it can be implemented on a commercial scale". Read: Profitable.

Fine. I can handle the fact that Dow, a company that has made billions in profit over the years, needs my help to investigate the next big green development. Still, why is it that whenever Dow hits the next big breakthrough - using my money - the politicians get rewarded, Dow stock holders get paid, but I don't?

What investor would ever agree to such an investment?

And it's not just Dow. It's many major companies. It's certainly GM, GMAC, Citi, Chrysler, AIG, etc, etc, etc. Aren't such companies forever indebted to the tax payers, to the people? Is it not we, the people, that are the real investors, not the government?

Toyota halts diesel plans. Banking on gas hybrids

Diesel only for Europeans?

Despite an uptick in recent US diesel vehicle sales, probably thanks to a significant drop in diesel fuel prices, Honda, Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, Nissan and Toyota have "halted diesel programs because of spiraling costs and other problems," according to AutoWeek.

Toyota followed up this news with the comment that they are "banking heavily" on gasoline-powered hybrid vehicles.

$4.00 gas: America's only hope for change?

Otherwise guzzlers will still be America's top sellers

If gas prices hit $4.00 today, what would happen?

According to a survey by Cars.com, 40 percent of car shoppers would immediately buy a more fuel efficient vehicle today. Another 41 percent would buy a more fuel efficient vehicle when they were ready to buy another auto.

However, if gas were $3.75, instead of $4.00, only 29 percent would buy a more fuel efficient vehicle.

Even more noteworthy, at $2.50 - 2.75, 64 percent of new car shoppers won't even consider a more fuel efficient vehicle.

I guess it's not really that surprising that US automakers are still dragging their feet on cheap hybrid cars, or even a real push towards hybridizing their truck fleets. Without much higher gas prices, Americans just aren't that interested.

Will cap and trade reduce foreign oil dependency?

Does it all come down to gas prices?

As the House quickly tweaks 1200 pages of cap and trade legislation, cutting chunks of it, unfortunately, into large slices of pork, I cannot help but wonder how much cap and trade will affect foreign oil dependency.

A couple months ago USAToday published research that suggested that by 2015 cap & trade would add between .16 cents on the low end to $2.58 on the high end to the price of a gallon of gas.

That's a lot of variability. If cap and trade only results in an extra .16 cents at the pump, it seems hard to believe that cap and trade's affect on gas prices would have much impact on foreign oil dependency. Of course, if the high end becomes reality, we'll significantly reduce foreign oil dependency, but we'll also kill the US auto industry.

Is cap and trade the right approach to foreign oil dependency? Is foreign oil dependency irrelevant compared to global warming?

Chevy Volt: Greatest auto marketing coup ever?

Pre production Volt one week ahead of schedule

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I've been talking about it for more than 2 years. Unfortunately, I'll be talking about if for more than another year before GM actually starts selling this innovative plug-in vehicle.

Anyway, today GM announced that it had started production on pre-production Volts, slightly ahead of schedule. Yet, what does this really mean?

Despite the long term potential of the Chevy Volt, the Volt offers GM very little in the next decade, other than positive press. In fact, it will almost certainly be at least a decade before GM is even producing 100,000 Volts per year. In the short term, Volt sales are meaningless. It's all about marketing.

Certainly, in another decade or so, the Volt could become GM's most important vehicle, or at least the first output of its most important platform. Unfortunately, however, it is far too early to tell. Every automaker has various plug-in plans, but the winners are many years away from being determined. Yet, no other plug-in vehicle receives near the attention of the Volt.

Regardless, there is no denying the marketing power of the Volt. Hence, is the Volt the greatest marketing coup ever in the automotive world?

Plug-in vehicle success still far off in the future?

Will consumers buy expensive coal powered plug-in vehicles?

The Government Accounting Agency (GAO) has completed its research on the benefits of plug-in vehicles, availability and challenges of incorporating plug-in vehicles into the federal fleet according to GreenCarCongress. While the report found that plug-in vehicles offer much potential, it also found lots of problems.

For instance America must either embrace nuclear or wide scale renewable power projects in order for plug-ins to reach their potential. Of course, each of these paths offers its own set of extensive problems, such as costs, public approval, etc. Moreover, significant cuts in battery costs, coupled with much higher gas prices, and a more robust auto demand, for instance, will be required to create enough demand for plug-ins to keep the technology moving forward.

Ultimately, the GAO report suggests that wide scale plug-in adoption, even at the Federal level, is going to be a complex process. More than anything, at least in my opinion, the report seems to imply that wide scale plug-in adoption might be much further into the future then many of us would like to believe.

Certainly, US automakers need to continue, even increase, their plug-in efforts, but isn't it becoming more and more obvious that US automakers need to completely reconsider their short-to-midterm auto production plans? For example, can the US auto industry continue to move forward without a direct competitor - in terms of cost and technology - to the Toyota Prius?

2012: GM's hybrid offensive begins?

Was the dual mode Vue hybrid a contender?

GM has been talking about a big increase in it's hybrid vehicle portfolio for a number of years now. Today, GM reiterated those plans of 14 new hybrid vehicles by 2012.

Since that statement, MotorTrend has tried to guess GM's future hybrid line up. Sadly, outside of the Chevy Volt, not much looks that impressive. Hopefully, 14 different models, some rebadged, will collectively help GM move some hybrids and provide some scalability for these technologies.

Ultimately, however, there are still some key questions. First, can an updated BAS System with lithium really make GM's mild hybrids that much more compelling? Second, will the dual mode hybrid powertrain ever be cost-effective, especially in smaller SUVs and crossovers that might not need all the functionality that the dual mode hybrid powertrain provides?

Regardless, I'd prefer just one or two new hybrid models, each capable of selling at least 50,000 units per year, instead of 7 more that each sell 10,000 units, or less, per year. Thus, I'm hoping, possibly beyond hope, that GM has at least one hybrid wild card up its sleeve.

3 Hybrids up for European Car of the Year

Gaining ground in Europe?

Hybrid cars probably won't become major players in Europe until they are offered in diesel versions. Nonetheless, three hybrids are up for the 2010 Car of the Year in Europe. The new third generation Toyota Prius, Lexus RX450h, and Honda Insight were all given a nod in Europe this year.